CJ Newsletters

The Market Rides Higher into a Less Than Certain Future

  In our year-end letter, we discussed how investors’ expectations were driving market returns higher in the post-election period. The post-inaugural period has proved to be no different. DOW 20000 was recorded within days of the inauguration and, following a week of consolidation, coasted through DOW 21000 a short month later. Just like that, Easy Peasy. That advance seemed almost too easily accomplished for those of us who invest in rather than bet on the stock market. Why? Because, aside…

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The Election Sets a New Course for the Economy

  It’s taken the markets and most of the world several weeks to digest the result of the November general election. To be honest, we didn’t see this one coming. That could be due to our relying on mainstream financial media for most of our information, and of course believing the vast majority of polls, only two of which correctly predicted the outcome. No doubt, just as the Brexit vote shocked Europe, the Trump win shocked the world. So, where…

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Time for Investors to Adjust Expectations

  As if last year wasn’t bad enough. 2015’s poor stock performance not only reclaimed the gains of the prior year but also set the stage for this year’s grim start. Despite the US economy showing slow and steady improvement, stocks have taken a round-trip during the previous two years from and back to January 2014 levels and it’s been anything but smooth sailing in a sea of headline-driven volatility. Q1 ’16 started amid the ongoing clamor surrounding China’s slowdown…

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Divergent Returns Hint of Trouble for the Global Economy

  Since we last published at year-end, a number of global economic events have roiled the markets. Last year we saw the Fed tapering, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Ebola scare, and a downturn in oil and commodity prices. This year we saw that downturn become a bear market in Energy and Industrial Commodities. Add to that the Greece/Euro crisis, big questions surrounding China’s economy, and an imminent change in Fed policy weighing on stock prices. These events undoubtedly present opportunities…

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