CJ Newsletters

The Market Awakens to the Reality of Reopening For a second week, we’ve seen the major averages consolidate off their rally highs as they settle into a trading range. As usual, news of the virus continues to offset any economic data that’s received as positive in light of expectations. Predictably, the reopening of the economy through two phases has sparked a dramatic increase in cases and hospitalizations in a number of states. This has prompted some governors to pause or…

Tailwinds for the Market: Low Expectations and the Fed Last week, we saw anecdotal evidence of a second wave of the virus spread throw fear into the market to the tune of an almost 6% sell-off in the major averages. This week, the S&P 500 has clawed back a good portion of that decline on the wings of a well-received Retail Sales report and a better-than-expected Empire State Mfg. survey. Both exceeded analysts’ modest expectations formed in the aftermath of…

The Economy Surprises Within the context of bleak economic data and civil unrest, stocks continued their advance this week going into Friday’s employment report. The numbers were expected to be grim with estimates of unemployment at nearly 20%. Instead, we saw 2.5 million jobs ADDED to the rolls in May and the jobless rate drop to 13.3%. That proved to be the green light for traders to jump in and take the DOW up almost 1000 points (+3.5%) and the…

Welcome to the New “Careful” Economy  The stock market oozed more optimism this week as it shrugged off gloomy economic data while the major indexes advanced through important technical levels. This served to green-light traders and broaden the relief rally to even the most down-trodden of sectors. The catalyst was anticipation of a smooth reopening of the economy as many states eased restrictions on businesses and gatherings. We also saw evidence that many Americans are disregarding restrictions regardless of where…

 A Week Light on News, Heavy on Speculation This week started off with Monday’s 3+% advance of stocks courtesy of headlines regarding the development of a vaccine and a pledge from the Fed of further stimulus. It was a week bereft of actual economic data and substantive news regarding testing or a vaccine.  That left investors with shorter investment horizons to trade on the noise. That served to push the upper boundary of the current trading range a bit higher…

The Fed Delivers a Sobering Assessment  This week the stock market took a step in a direction toward reconnecting with the longer term outlook for the economy. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell offered that “the outlook for the recovery is highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks.” He made that comment while addressing questions about how much more the Fed may have to do in deploying its resources if the recovery doesn’t appear as quickly as the market and…

A Disconnect between the Economy and the Stock Market For nearly 30 years we’ve preached, yes preached, that in the long run stock market performance will correlate with that of the economy. However, in the short-term the market often disconnects from the economic data and prices in factors that may or may not have an impact on the economy.  That brings us to where we are today: Early in Q1 the public safety response to COVID-19 took the form of…

 Competing Narratives Drive the Market Let’s sum up the trimester that’s drawing to a close. The S&P 500 peaked at a record high on Feb 19th. Courtesy of the COVID-19 event, we found ourselves almost 34% off that high on March 23, ending the record-long recovery bull market and officially logging the first bear market since the Great Recession of ’08-’09. Since that day, we’ve witnessed an unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response to the crisis. There was little choice…

What a pleasant surprise. A large dose of good short term news this week has pushed the markets up nearly 12%, clearly extending the Relief Rally we mused we had seen in the few short sessions 2 weeks ago.  News of cresting virus cases in hard hit areas such as New York and our own state of Washington among others helped considerably.  In addition, a potential oil production cut worldwide seems to have been agreed upon in theory. This will…