An Unexpected Shot in the Arm for the Election Rally This week, we were greeted by news of Pfizer’s development of a COVID vaccine with a purported 90% efficacy rate. We always knew there’d be a Vaccine Rally in our future, we just didn’t know when. Most investors were expecting sometime in early 2021. This result came as a pleasant surprise and launched Monday’s rally of epic proportion that took the major averages to new bull market record highs. It…
Investors Are Betting on Gridlock This week began with the stock market launching into rally mode in the days before the election and then following through with the biggest post-election day advance in history. That leaves the benchmark averages within whispering distance of their record highs. Uncertainty over the election result seemed to peak last week as any good news was viewed as a reason to sell. This week, expectations for a contested presidential election failed to dampen enthusiasm for…
Virus Worries Add to Investor Anxiety This week, earnings season maintained its upward trend on the wings of results from Big Tech. While the news was generally favorable and accompanied by a record GDP growth number for Q3, the stock market looked the other direction and lost its purchase on the famous “Wall of Worry”. That’s the term used by investors to describe a rising stock market in the face of distressing headlines. It’s well documented that investors often look…
Navigating Through the Fog of Election Uncertainty This week, earnings season kicks off in earnest as more than 400 companies report third quarter results. As expected, many of the best-performing companies were those whose stocks are among this year’s market leaders. Results have been generally positive and this has imparted a mildly bullish bent to the averages amidst the ongoing rotation into Cyclical issues and the building uncertainty surrounding the future of US fiscal policy. In the background, the noise…
The Market Pendulum Swings With the Headlines This week was light on economic data and all about a second stimulus package, or lack of one. At the start of the week the market moved higher on speculation that a compromise would be reached. It reversed course Tuesday on news of negotiations breaking down. Bad news, right? Apparently not bad enough to keep stocks from rallying ferociously higher on Wednesday even as doomsayers and aggrieved business owners paraded their outrage on…
A Busy Week Foretells of an Eventful Quarter Ahead This week was newsworthy in that we saw the release of some critical economic data, the close of the third quarter, and two grumpy old men shouted at each other on television. First, the data: The final number for Q2 GDP came in at -31.4%. That came as no surprise, and therefore was seemingly not a concern for investors who instead focused on a rosy forecast of 30%+ GDP growth in…
Our latest Investment Outlook noted the prevailing forecast for the end of recession at the close of the third quarter and what that might mean for stocks. While we anticipate the return of expansion to the economy, we don’t view that as a reason to increase exposure to the market at this time. We’d reiterate our view that a smaller, slower economy will be emerging from this recession. To what level the economy recovers remains uncertain due to several factors,…
As the close of Q3 approaches, investor focus is turning away from a grim and gritty 2020 toward a better 2021, or so we hope. However, the path dead ahead to that better next year is beset with uncertainty surrounding the next stage of the pandemic, the policy response and its effect on the economy, and the upcoming election. All of which will have an effect on the stock market. Recent forecasts predict the economy returning to pre-pandemic levels of…
Not a Market Bubble….Yet Last week we highlighted the Fed’s shift in policy allowing for a period of higher inflation beyond the 2% target threshold where previously it would begin to normalize (raise) key interest rates. We noted that allowing the economy to inflate was more acceptable and easier to remedy than the alternative: deflation leading to a depression. History has shown that the massive injection of liquidity such as we’re seeing can have a side effect. Investors tend to…
Is the Fed Inflating the Economy or a Market Bubble? That’s what investors are asking this week following a statement from the Fed that threw new light on how it would implement monetary policy in pursuit of its mandate. You know, the mandate that characterizes stable prices as a rate of 2% inflation? That rate, in the past, has sounded the starting gun for the Fed board of governors to beginning normalizing interest rates. In the parlance of investing, that…
