CJ Newsletters

One can’t help but look back a year ago and marvel at the contrast between the current quarter and Q4 2018. Then, the Fed was fully engaged in raising key interest rates, conditions in Europe were eroding along with the prospect for an orderly Brexit, and the U.S./China trade “conflict” was escalating to an all-out war weaponized with tariffs. The resulting market collapse not only wiped out the year’s gains, but posted losses ranging from 3% to 14% across the…

Recession: Defined as negative GDP Growth for two or more consecutive quarters. That’s the word being widely trafficked in the media these days. Outside the US, there’s a contraction occurring in the Rest of the World (“RoW”), raising concerns for the global economy. The trade conflict has become a war, weaponized with tariffs. The UK is looking like it will crash out of the EU. Germany, the economic engine of the EU, is teetering on the verge of its own…

To say that this year, to date, has been eventful is an understatement. Following a horrendous close to 2018, the first four months of ‘19 brought us a market melt-up to a new record high (2945) for the S&P 500, courtesy of the Fed’s policy shift into neutral. Soon after, trade “friction” between China and the US devolved into warfare with escalating tariffs as the weapons of choice. That took the S&P back down again almost 7%. Meanwhile, regime change…

As we approached the close to 2018, we witnessed something not seen often, if ever, in this modern era of monetary policy. The Do-Over, or Mulligan for you golfers out there. Typically, when the Fed speaks and the markets react, the FOMC committee Chair goes about his or her business of making the rounds of congressional committees and issuing cryptic statements subject to any number of interpretations by the financial media. The September 2018 policy statement was met by an…

The period following the posting of our September 18th Outlook has been eventful, to say the least. Following an upbeat finish to the third quarter, the Fed laid an egg in early October with the release of a policy statement that left the impression among investors that it had abandoned its data-dependent approach and was on a mission to raise rates not only this month, but through all of 2019. That left a significant dent in the major averages, wiping…

In the first half of 2018, we put a long overdue correction in the rear view mirror. From there, the S&P 500 has built a nice base from which it has advanced to new record highs in the current quarter, claiming ownership of the record for what is arguably the longest bull market in history. In terms of total return, this market still trails the tech-fueled bull run of 1990-2000 by a good margin. While the talking heads constantly debate…

We’re awaiting the outcome of what is now a four-month long consolidation of the stock market that began on January 26th. In our latest letter to clients we pronounced that the last stage of the correction began on April 2nd. Some experts are speculating that this consolidation will be a launching pad for the next leg of this lengthy bull market while others see it as a precursor to the end of the cycle. No doubt, there will be another…

The suspense has ended. Finally after two years, the long-overdue market correction began the week of January 29th. Well, at least it did for those of us who define the “market” as the S & P 500. Here’s what you need to know if you’re keeping score: A decline of 10% or more from the market’s most recent high fits the classic description of a correction. A pullback of more than 20% defines a bear market. On February 8th, a…

As we enter the final month of 2017, all eyes are focused on the Halls of Congress as the much anticipated Tax Bill approaches the finish line. Last week the Senate passed its version of the bill that will now be sent to the Congressional Conference Committee for reconciliation with the House version. A final version of the bill is expected to emerge from committee sometime before Christmas. Upon passage, it goes to the president’s desk for signing. We were…

  As we enter into the last month of Q3, all eyes should be focused on the return of Congress to Washington for a final attempt at passing a budget and enacting tax reform before the close of 2017. Instead, the focus has been shifted to any number of items that we would put far down the list of priorities for investors and the markets: Repeal and Replace, Building a Wall, Tampering by the Russians, Pardoning Sheriff Joe, Defending and…