CJ Newsletters

A Shadow Correction Lurks Within This Rotation As we head into the long holiday weekend, stocks have meandered within a narrow trading range for the past week. A memorable and impressive earnings season has given rise to speculation over whether we’re seeing “peak” fundamentals for this economic cycle. (Not yet) The inflation debate continues and will apparently persist until the Fed announces a change of course. (Don’t hold your breath) That’s likely to be at least a quarter or two…

Fiscal Policy Changes Appear on the Horizon It’s been an eventful month of April. We saw the government embark on a spending spree while the private sector reveled in a blockbuster Earnings Season. The $1.8 trillion American Families Plan has been announced. It follows the American Rescue and American Infrastructure Plans. The tab? Nearly $6 trillion at first glance. Of that, the latest iteration of government benevolence opened at $1.8 trillion, paid for by tax increases on corporations and as…

The Markets in Q1 Reflect Broad Economic Expansion Ahead The first quarter came to a close this week, leaving in its wake a fading narrative of runaway inflation that had served as media fodder the past two weeks. The results for Q1 confirm a significant shift in market leadership. The NASDAQ index, last year’s darling, trails both the S&P 500 and the DOW30 by more than half as the Cyclicals, issues that typically lead a broadening economic recovery, posted upper…

The Fed Has Spoken, Is Anyone Listening? Last year’s index inequality continues to unwind as investors move from the pandemic-assisted, stay-at-home, growth stocks to the recovery-assisted Cyclicals. It’s been a persistent theme in recent weeks that comes as no surprise. That shift has weighed heavily on the Tech sector and companies that flourished during the pandemic. While many solid companies that have been sold recently will eventually go on to make new highs as the recovery broadens, a number of…

Investors Rebalance While Washington Dithers It’s been a noise-worthy (not newsworthy) couple of weeks since our last update. In the aftermath of the much-publicized “Trading Frenzy”, it was determined that a number of gullible and impulsive traders lost money speculating on stocks. Losers in the stock market? Shocking. Definitely not a first, but apparently news to some in Congress who feel compelled to save people from their own worst instincts. The House Financial Services Committee launched a televised hearing last…

Investors Remain Focused on the Relevant When we last left you, the R & R crowd (Reddit and Robinhood) had roiled the stock market, launching several hedge funds and brokerage entities into existential crisis. Politicians were predictably incensed and promised to punish those that were manipulating the stock market with another round of regulations. That fiction distracted them from their immediate task to dispense $1.9 trillion in stimulus to a waiting audience. Jumping ahead, the short squeeze has unwound, leaving…

The Retail Trade Scores a Rare Win on Wall Street The Retail Trade, comprised of individual investors, has usually come out on the short end when competing with the Big Money on Wall Street. The Big Money is defined as the major investment firms, banks, and hedge funds that employ financial engineering, high-speed trading, and algorithmic science to move the markets in a desired direction. As investors for whom fundamentals matter, we’ve frequently lamented the inexorable transformation of the stock…