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 Competing Narratives Drive the Market Let’s sum up the trimester that’s drawing to a close. The S&P 500 peaked at a record high on Feb 19th. Courtesy of the COVID-19 event, we found ourselves almost 34% off that high on March 23, ending the record-long recovery bull market and officially logging the first bear market since the Great Recession of ’08-’09. Since that day, we’ve witnessed an unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response to the crisis. There was little choice…

What a pleasant surprise. A large dose of good short term news this week has pushed the markets up nearly 12%, clearly extending the Relief Rally we mused we had seen in the few short sessions 2 weeks ago.  News of cresting virus cases in hard hit areas such as New York and our own state of Washington among others helped considerably.  In addition, a potential oil production cut worldwide seems to have been agreed upon in theory. This will…

The markets have spent the past several weeks making history. After hitting a record high on Feb 19, the S&P 500 closed 34% lower on March 23rd. Following that initial, dramatic selloff, we entered the relief rally phase of last week where panic subsided and volatility abated. This past week, the narrative surrounding the transmission of the virus was joined in the headlines by that of the first economic data flowing from the COVID-19 event. Predictably, it points to the…

Bottoming signs but not out of the woods… In the midst of the COVID-19 health crisis the economic crisis unfolds in parallel.  The markets continue to pile up records both bad and good.  Record volatility, fewest trading sessions to bear market, biggest 3 day loss… Biggest 3 day gain, etc.  Whenever we face an economic crisis, one on such a scale that it leads markets to bear market territory we need fall back on some history to guide us as…

Events in the world are unfolding at a rapid pace as leaders scramble to address the threat of COVID-19 and its impact on economies. The turmoil in markets matches the level of uncertainty in all aspects. How long the shutdown lasts is not known and will be a key determinant in how the eventual rebound looks on the other side. We are watching closely, gathering data and making plans on how to navigate what comes our way with regard to…

In our Investment Outlook of this past Monday we addressed the recent return of volatility to the markets and discussed how the COVID-19 event has been the catalyst for what was, at the time, a correction in the stock market. A mere three days later, we’re now writing about the end of the record long bull market as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ joined the DOW in bear market territory this morning. In these past few days, we’ve seen the…