CJ Update – February 11, 2022

Inflation Headlines Weigh on Stock Prices As you might expect, the Fed’s recent announcement generated an abundance of speculative headlines andopinions from market watchers that served as a catalyst for the recent drawdown in stock prices. Bydrawdown we mean a not-so-surprising correction for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, down 17% and 12%at their respective lows. At the same time, we saw the small-cap Russell 2000 slide into bear marketterritory, down 21% at its recent low. The DOW was resilient,…

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CJ Update – January 28, 2022

This Week: A Preview of Things to Come Since our most recent Update, that slight bump in volatility we saw earlier this month developed into a spike as measured by the VIX index. No doubt, you noticed. This week was all about the Fed and their scheduled meeting. It had some talking heads in the media giddy with excitement as they raised prior estimates of 2 to 4 rate hikes this year up to the 5 to 7 range. Apparently,…

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CJ Update – January 14, 2022

The Market Responds to the Shift in Monetary Policy These first two weeks of the year in the stock market have, so far, gone according to script as the Fed begins to remove the punch bowl. We’re seeing a slight bump in volatility as market participants shift their focus, and capital, from high-priced, large-cap Growth (mostly Tech) issues to the opportunistically-priced Cyclicals that typically perform well in a late-cycle expansion. Diversified investors with a long-term view need only make minor…

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The Challenge for Investors – Adapting to Changing Conditions

As we approach the end of Year Two of the Pandemic Era, we’ll take a look at what has been wrought upon the economy and its markets by the policy response to COVID and what we might expect to see next year. 2020 was a year of extremes while 2021 has been a year of advancement for a US economy that has returned to pre-pandemic levels of growth. The byproduct of this has been a disruption of supply chains and…

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CJ Update – December 3, 2021

The Return of a COVID Economy Cools the Market As previously noted, the markets have taken on a more speculative flavor as earnings season fades from memory. We’ve seen increased volatility as traders go offside to “play” the headlines and move the indexes dramatically. Today, we find the NASDAQ off 7.30% from its November record high, the DOW off 5.72%, and the S&P 500 down 4.50%. That divergence among the indexes points to investors simply culling some high-priced winners and…

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CJ Update – November 5, 2021

Earnings Season Remains Center Stage An impressive start to the earnings season remains so as we approach its end. The results are driving stock prices higher, leaving all the major indexes at record levels. As expected, tapering was formally announced by the Fed at this week’s FOMC meeting. This was seen as too little or too late of a response by a few market experts and media types who have predicted an impending era of hyperinflation. We’re not in that…

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CJ Update – October 22, 2021

Earnings Kick the Market into Rally Mode Much of what investors focused on during a flat third quarter remains unchanged. The supply chain remains gridlocked. The volume of the inflation narrative remains at a high pitch. Resident CNBC media personalities and many of their guests continue to press the Fed to hastily employ a shift in monetary policy to solve a problem that, with a broken supply chain, actually falls in the bailiwick of fiscal policy makers and the White…

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Time For Investors To Adjust Their Market Expectations?

We saw a change in the tone of the market emerge in recent months. Despite seeing a number of new records for the major indexes this summer, the third quarter closed very quietly for stocks with returns that can only be described as “flat”. Thus ends a string of impressive quarterly returns, tracing back to Q2 of last year, that reflected the vigorous recovery of the economy. While that recovery continues, there are some challenges of which investors should take…

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CJ Update – October 1, 2021

Stocks End the Quarter with a Whimper This week the market limped into the close of the quarter with stock prices taking a breather for several reasons. First among them are concerns over persistent supply chain constraints that have impaired the delivery of goods, pushing prices higher, and driving the inflation narrative. That could account for the recent surge in the 10-year treasury yield that typically weighs heavy on the Growth issues that have been leading the market higher this…

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CJ Update – September 17, 2021

Inflation Worries Fade as Delta Variant Surges Since our last update, stocks have drifted somewhat erratically from their highs of two weeks ago. It’s been nothing dramatic, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ currently off a bit more than 2% from their record highs. A look at the internals of the indexes reveals a divergence among market sectors such as we’ve seen with the several “stealth” corrections of this year. For the trailing 4 weeks Financials, Health Care, Staples, Industrials,…

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