Conway Jarvis

CJ Update – August 6, 2021

A Brief Time Out for a Client Service Announcement Following the sharp, one-day selloff of more than 3% that we saw in the last week of July, the market has soldiered on these past two weeks to routinely set new record highs. That decline left some traders who sold licking their wounds while most diversified investors who stuck with their positions have enjoyed watching their portfolios swell to record proportions. We’ve been fielding comments from clients regarding those values and,…

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CJ Update – July 23, 2021

A Whipsaw Week for Traders Last week’s shallow decline of the major averages culminated in a dramatic selloff of the broad market this past Monday. It was prompted by news of the accelerating spread of the Delta Variant just as the reopening was gaining momentum. That day also brought a steep decline in the 10-year bond yield that had some heads exploding on CNBC as experts pondered whether we were seeing the start of a correction, or worse, and a…

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CJ Update – July 9, 2021

The Market Pendulum Swings on Conflicting Narratives Just as the first half of the year marked a significant shift of investor capital away from the Growth stocks and into the Cyclicals, Q3 is shaping up as a potential unwinding of that shift. For months, the inflation narrative dampened traders’ enthusiasm for the big-cap Growth favorites of the past year. That narrative has faded under the weight of an abrupt decline in treasury bond rates and a flattening of the yield…

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CJ Update – June 25, 2021

Perspective on a Hot Topic: Inflation Should we be worried about inflation? That’s the question that comes to mind when hearing predictions from some experts who suggest the Fed is courting disaster by delaying a policy response to recent inflation data. It’s the subject du jour in the financial media during the current news void leading up to next month’s earnings season. Prognostications of Doom always sell advertising. So, should you be worried? Well, “It depends”. If you own financial…

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An Awakening for the Woke: Playing by the Rules

This summer, we’re likely to see the dark side of the policy formation process in Washington. It holds the potential for imparting significant and long-lasting effects on the economy, some good, some not so good. For the past 20 years we’ve seen bipartisanship in government relegated to the status of a “concept” more so than a practice. Both parties share the blame. It’s given rise to an almost constant state of gridlock where only a few big, important things get…

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CJ Update – May 28, 2021

A Shadow Correction Lurks Within This Rotation As we head into the long holiday weekend, stocks have meandered within a narrow trading range for the past week. A memorable and impressive earnings season has given rise to speculation over whether we’re seeing “peak” fundamentals for this economic cycle. (Not yet) The inflation debate continues and will apparently persist until the Fed announces a change of course. (Don’t hold your breath) That’s likely to be at least a quarter or two…

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CJ Update – May 14th, 2021

Some Perspective on Inflation Since our last Update, we’ve seen investors turn a blind eye to an impressive Earnings Season, a ransomware attack shut down a major pipeline, a semiconductor shortage slow auto production, and a stumble in the employment numbers. The market has swung between record highs and a mild pullback with some segments descending into correction and even bear market territory. There’s also the elephant in the room, the revival of inflation fears that has triggered a tug…

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CJ Update – April 30, 2021

Fiscal Policy Changes Appear on the Horizon It’s been an eventful month of April. We saw the government embark on a spending spree while the private sector reveled in a blockbuster Earnings Season. The $1.8 trillion American Families Plan has been announced. It follows the American Rescue and American Infrastructure Plans. The tab? Nearly $6 trillion at first glance. Of that, the latest iteration of government benevolence opened at $1.8 trillion, paid for by tax increases on corporations and as…

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CJ Update – April 1, 2021

The Markets in Q1 Reflect Broad Economic Expansion Ahead The first quarter came to a close this week, leaving in its wake a fading narrative of runaway inflation that had served as media fodder the past two weeks. The results for Q1 confirm a significant shift in market leadership. The NASDAQ index, last year’s darling, trails both the S&P 500 and the DOW30 by more than half as the Cyclicals, issues that typically lead a broadening economic recovery, posted upper…

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CJ Update – March 19, 2021

The Fed Has Spoken, Is Anyone Listening? Last year’s index inequality continues to unwind as investors move from the pandemic-assisted, stay-at-home, growth stocks to the recovery-assisted Cyclicals. It’s been a persistent theme in recent weeks that comes as no surprise. That shift has weighed heavily on the Tech sector and companies that flourished during the pandemic. While many solid companies that have been sold recently will eventually go on to make new highs as the recovery broadens, a number of…

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