Conway Jarvis

CJ Update – December 31, 2021

Bidding Adieu to 2021 After a bit of choppy action and a bump in volatility early in the Christmas week, Santa Claus righted the sleigh and delivered the goods for those cooler-headed investors who held fast following the mid-December Fed meeting. That was the meeting where Chairman Powell announced a doubling of the pace of the taper, now ending in March, and would be adapting future policy to changing economic conditions. Nothing dramatic there. In fact, we viewed that as…

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The Challenge for Investors – Adapting to Changing Conditions

As we approach the end of Year Two of the Pandemic Era, we’ll take a look at what has been wrought upon the economy and its markets by the policy response to COVID and what we might expect to see next year. 2020 was a year of extremes while 2021 has been a year of advancement for a US economy that has returned to pre-pandemic levels of growth. The byproduct of this has been a disruption of supply chains and…

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CJ Update – December 3, 2021

The Return of a COVID Economy Cools the Market As previously noted, the markets have taken on a more speculative flavor as earnings season fades from memory. We’ve seen increased volatility as traders go offside to “play” the headlines and move the indexes dramatically. Today, we find the NASDAQ off 7.30% from its November record high, the DOW off 5.72%, and the S&P 500 down 4.50%. That divergence among the indexes points to investors simply culling some high-priced winners and…

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CJ Update – November 5, 2021

Earnings Season Remains Center Stage An impressive start to the earnings season remains so as we approach its end. The results are driving stock prices higher, leaving all the major indexes at record levels. As expected, tapering was formally announced by the Fed at this week’s FOMC meeting. This was seen as too little or too late of a response by a few market experts and media types who have predicted an impending era of hyperinflation. We’re not in that…

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CJ Update – October 22, 2021

Earnings Kick the Market into Rally Mode Much of what investors focused on during a flat third quarter remains unchanged. The supply chain remains gridlocked. The volume of the inflation narrative remains at a high pitch. Resident CNBC media personalities and many of their guests continue to press the Fed to hastily employ a shift in monetary policy to solve a problem that, with a broken supply chain, actually falls in the bailiwick of fiscal policy makers and the White…

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Time For Investors To Adjust Their Market Expectations?

We saw a change in the tone of the market emerge in recent months. Despite seeing a number of new records for the major indexes this summer, the third quarter closed very quietly for stocks with returns that can only be described as “flat”. Thus ends a string of impressive quarterly returns, tracing back to Q2 of last year, that reflected the vigorous recovery of the economy. While that recovery continues, there are some challenges of which investors should take…

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CJ Update – October 1, 2021

Stocks End the Quarter with a Whimper This week the market limped into the close of the quarter with stock prices taking a breather for several reasons. First among them are concerns over persistent supply chain constraints that have impaired the delivery of goods, pushing prices higher, and driving the inflation narrative. That could account for the recent surge in the 10-year treasury yield that typically weighs heavy on the Growth issues that have been leading the market higher this…

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CJ Update – September 17, 2021

Inflation Worries Fade as Delta Variant Surges Since our last update, stocks have drifted somewhat erratically from their highs of two weeks ago. It’s been nothing dramatic, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ currently off a bit more than 2% from their record highs. A look at the internals of the indexes reveals a divergence among market sectors such as we’ve seen with the several “stealth” corrections of this year. For the trailing 4 weeks Financials, Health Care, Staples, Industrials,…

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CJ Update – September 3, 2021

The Fed Offers a Clue to Policy Timing The star of last week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He offered guidance as to the Board’s policy response to the ongoing recovery and the inflation attendant to it. Indications are that the Fed will begin to reduce bond purchases before year end. We noted in our most recent Update that, in effect, the economy was reaching the point of not needing life support in the form of…

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CJ Update – August 20, 2021

Perspective on Taper Talk Following last week’s series of new record highs for the major averages, investors have now turned their focus to news of slowing retail sales and the spread of the Delta Variant. The general view is that consumers have bought all the “stuff” they want and are now moving on to buying experiences. That might explain Amazon’s recent descent into correction territory. However, the travel and hospitality stocks aren’t responding yet to that general view and are…

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