Conway Jarvis

CJ Update – December 4, 2020

The Market Meanders to a New Record After a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened week that saw the DOW30 penetrate the 30,000 level for the first time, stocks have since persisted in their grind higher across the board. As Value/Income issues continued to outperform Growth we saw record intraday highs this week, not only for the DOW but for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ as well. Naturally, this roused speculation of this advance being the start of a “Santa Claus” rally such…

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CJ Update – November 25, 2020

A Mostly Quiet Record-Setting Week We were expecting a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened week. Monday started off as expected with mixed results as investors took profits in the mega-cap issues that led the market this year. The rotation from Growth to Value/Income stocks is now fully engaged as profits taken in the mega–caps are being redeployed into those Cyclical issues that should benefit from the more full recovery we anticipate in 2021. We then saw this “quiet” week punctuated by Tuesday’s…

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CJ Update – November 20, 2020

A Brief Reality Check for the Market Following last week’s Vaccine Rally, the stock market consolidated some of that gain this week as investors turned their focus once again to COVID and the growing number of lockdowns occurring throughout the states. It would seem that, just as we checked the box for vaccine development, we’re confronted by the details of timing and distribution of the vaccine amidst a surge in the spread of the virus. That was enough to accelerate…

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CJ Update – November 13, 2020

An Unexpected Shot in the Arm for the Election Rally This week, we were greeted by news of Pfizer’s development of a COVID vaccine with a purported 90% efficacy rate. We always knew there’d be a Vaccine Rally in our future, we just didn’t know when. Most investors were expecting sometime in early 2021. This result came as a pleasant surprise and launched Monday’s rally of epic proportion that took the major averages to new bull market record highs. It…

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CJ Update – November 6, 2020

Investors Are Betting on Gridlock This week began with the stock market launching into rally mode in the days before the election and then following through with the biggest post-election day advance in history. That leaves the benchmark averages within whispering distance of their record highs. Uncertainty over the election result seemed to peak last week as any good news was viewed as a reason to sell. This week, expectations for a contested presidential election failed to dampen enthusiasm for…

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CJ Update – October 30, 2020

Virus Worries Add to Investor Anxiety This week, earnings season maintained its upward trend on the wings of results from Big Tech. While the news was generally favorable and accompanied by a record GDP growth number for Q3, the stock market looked the other direction and lost its purchase on the famous “Wall of Worry”. That’s the term used by investors to describe a rising stock market in the face of distressing headlines. It’s well documented that investors often look…

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CJ Update – October 23, 2020

Navigating Through the Fog of Election Uncertainty This week, earnings season kicks off in earnest as more than 400 companies report third quarter results. As expected, many of the best-performing companies were those whose stocks are among this year’s market leaders. Results have been generally positive and this has imparted a mildly bullish bent to the averages amidst the ongoing rotation into Cyclical issues and the building uncertainty surrounding the future of US fiscal policy. In the background, the noise…

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CJ Update – Oct 9, 2020

The Market Pendulum Swings With the Headlines This week was light on economic data and all about a second stimulus package, or lack of one. At the start of the week the market moved higher on speculation that a compromise would be reached. It reversed course Tuesday on news of negotiations breaking down. Bad news, right? Apparently not bad enough to keep stocks from rallying ferociously higher on Wednesday even as doomsayers and aggrieved business owners paraded their outrage on…

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CJ Update – October 2, 2020

A Busy Week Foretells of an Eventful Quarter Ahead This week was newsworthy in that we saw the release of some critical economic data, the close of the third quarter, and two grumpy old men shouted at each other on television. First, the data: The final number for Q2 GDP came in at -31.4%. That came as no surprise, and therefore was seemingly not a concern for investors who instead focused on a rosy forecast of 30%+ GDP growth in…

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